Mizuho Slashes Gemini Price Target by Over Half, Citing Trading Slump and Core Revenue Risks

2027 Revenue Forecast Cut 24%; Workforce Trimmed 30% as Crypto Exchange Accelerates Business Transformation

Japanese financial giant Mizuho Financial Group has dramatically cut its price target for U.S. cryptocurrency exchange Gemini, slashing it from $26 to $12 — a reduction of more than 54% — as weakening trading activity and softer crypto market conditions continue to weigh on the platform's near-term growth prospects.

Despite the steep cut, Mizuho maintained its Outperform rating on Gemini shares, signaling that analysts still see long-term potential even as short-term headwinds intensify. The firm's analysts stated in their report: "Weaker crypto price expectations and declining on-platform trading volumes are expected to constrain near-term revenue growth."

2027 Revenue Outlook Trimmed 24% — Revenue Mix Shifts From Trading to Services

Mizuho revised Gemini's 2027 revenue forecast downward by 24%, reflecting the broader contraction in crypto trading activity and the company's heavy reliance on transaction fee-based income.

However, a notable structural shift is underway. Services revenue — encompassing credit card income and interest earnings — is now projected to account for 43% of total revenue by 2027, up from a prior estimate of 36%. Gemini's credit card alone processed $1.2 billion in transaction volume in 2025, generating $33 million in net revenue, underscoring the platform's active pivot toward a diversified financial services model.

Workforce Cut 30%, International Retreat — Gemini Tightens Its Belt

To defend profitability amid the trading downturn, Gemini has undertaken significant structural cost-cutting measures. The company has reduced its workforce by approximately 30% and withdrawn from multiple international markets. Mizuho estimates these measures will reduce total operating expenditures by roughly 12% through 2027.

Gemini's stock has fallen approximately 85% since its 2025 IPO, reflecting the market's skepticism over whether service revenue growth can adequately compensate for the weakness in its core trading business.

What This Means for Crypto Investors

For global crypto investors, Mizuho's analysis carries a broader signal: crypto exchange valuations serve as a real-time barometer of market sentiment and trading appetite. When institutional analysts revise exchange revenue forecasts downward, it often reflects a wider cooling in retail and institutional participation across digital asset markets.

Mizuho acknowledged the growth potential of Gemini's services segment but maintained that a meaningful recovery in the trading business remains a prerequisite for any substantial re-rating of the stock. Whether Gemini can successfully complete its transformation from a pure-play trading platform to a full-spectrum financial services company remains the central question for investors going forward.

Joohoon Choi joohoon@blockstreet.co.kr